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Al-Shabaab could mirror Syrian rebels, ex-NISA deputy warns
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    Friday December 13, 2024


    Abdisalan Guled, Co-Founder and CEO of Eagle Ranges Services and former deputy director of Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), delivers critical insights on security and counter-violent extremism during a recent interview.

    Mogadishu (HOL) —  Al-Shabaab could radically shift its strategy and destabilize Somalia in a manner similar to the Syrian opposition forces that dismantled Bashar al-Assad’s government, a former Somali intelligence official has warned.

    Abdisalan Guled, a former deputy director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and a prominent security analyst, drew parallels between Somalia’s ongoing battle against Al-Shabaab and Syria’s civil war. He highlighted the speed with which opposition forces in Syria, bolstered by international support, toppled Assad’s troops in under a week.

    “Al-Shabaab could easily adjust its approach in a similar fashion,” Guled said. “If they gain external backing, Somalia’s government could face unprecedented challenges.”

    The Co-Founder and CEO of Eagle Ranges Services was scathing in his critique of Somalia’s military strategy, describing it as disjointed and vulnerable. He cited recent defeats in Ras Kamboni, where Somali forces reportedly suffered significant setbacks, leading to a collapse in morale and exposing weaknesses in leadership and coordination.

    Guled noted that the spectre of foreign powers supporting Al-Shabaab compounds the threat. He warned that the insurgent group could exploit international rivalries to secure funding, weapons, and logistical support, much like factions in Syria’s conflict.

    “This isn’t just a domestic issue—it’s part of a broader geopolitical game,” Guled said. “Somalia’s government must strengthen alliances and preempt any moves by external actors to destabilize the region further.”

    Guled’s analysis paints a grim picture for Somalia if the government fails to act decisively. With Al-Shabaab entrenched in rural strongholds and capable of adapting its tactics, the insurgency remains a potent threat. He urged Somali leaders to overhaul their military strategy, enhance troop morale, and unify command structures.

    “The stakes couldn’t be higher,” Guled said. 

     





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