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CIA director’s secret Mogadishu visit signals U.S. alarm over Horn of Africa tensions
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    Friday November 1, 2024


    CIA Director William J. Burns (left) stands alongside Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (center) and Abdullahi Mohamed Ali 'Sanbalolshe' (right), Director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency, during Burns's visit to Mogadishu. CREDIT/ Villa Somalia

    Mogadishu (HOL) — CIA Director William J. Burns made a secret visit to Mogadishu on Thursday, emphasizing the U.S.'s heightened focus on the Horn of Africa as regional rivalries intensify. In his meeting with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Burns discussed boosting intelligence collaboration, enhancing counter-terrorism strategies, and addressing the geopolitical complexities involving Ethiopia's maritime deal and its fallout.

    Burns's visit comes at a time when relations in the Horn of Africa are on edge. Ethiopia's January 2024 agreement to lease a 20-kilometer coastal strip from Somaliland sparked immediate backlash from Somalia, which views the deal as a breach of its sovereignty. In response, President Mohamud's government expelled Ethiopia's diplomats and demanded the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops by the year's end.

    Somaliland has vowed to implement the contentious deal despite Mogadishu's objections.

    The stakes were raised further in October when President Mohamud attended a summit in Asmara with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The meeting solidified a trilateral security pact to counter Ethiopia's influence, highlighting the risk of a broader regional conflict.

    Thursday's visit marks Burns's second high-profile engagement in Mogadishu this year. In January 2024, he visited the Somali capital following a U.S. Navy SEAL operation to intercept an Iranian arms shipment off the coast, during which two commandos went missing. That visit reinforced U.S.-Somali cooperation against Al-Shabaab, a group that has leveraged Somalia's fractured political landscape to maintain its insurgency since 2006. Despite over $500 million in U.S. military aid since 2010, the insurgency group remains a formidable threat.

    Burns's visit reflects Washington's recalibrated focus on maintaining balance in the region as alliances shift. Burns's trip to Mogadishu follows high-profile visits this week to Kenya and Egypt, where he met with President William Ruto and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, respectively, to address security concerns spanning from Sudan's civil war to Houthi activity in the Red Sea. Sources indicate that Burns is expected to continue his diplomatic tour with a visit to Addis Ababa, signalling the U.S.'s intent to address Ethiopia's strategic posture amid its evolving alliances and regional tensions.

    The U.S. has historically prioritized counter-terrorism in Somalia as part of its global War on Terror, aiding in training elite units and sharing intelligence. However, Somalia's alliances with Egypt and Eritrea complicate this relationship. While these partnerships bolster Somalia's position against Ethiopia, some analysts worry they could also trigger new regional instability and embolden groups like Al-Shabaab.

    Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has not been shy about his ambitions to secure maritime access. Landlocked since Eritrea's 1993 independence, Ethiopia has relied on Djibouti for most of its trade—a costly arrangement that strains its economy. The deal with Somaliland is part of Abiy's bid to reduce dependence and assert Ethiopia's regional influence. "We will not take offensive action, but we will defend ourselves effectively if something happens," Abiy recently stated, signalling Ethiopia's stance amid rising tensions.

    In September 2024, Ethiopia formally warned the United States about the potential deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia following the conclusion of the African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) at the end of the year. 

    Even as regional powers jockey for influence, Al-Shabaab remains a critical concern. The potential withdrawal of Ethiopian troops—at Somalia's request—  combined with the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) in January 2025, poses the risk of a security vacuum. Such a gap could provide Al-Shabaab with opportunities to expand its influence, creating further instability. Burns's visit signals the U.S. intelligence agency's attempt to preempt these risks.
     


    FILE - Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns speaks during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing to examine worldwide threats on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 8, 2023.Amanda Andrade-Rhoades / AP Photo

     





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