Mogadishu (HOL) — Somalia is bracing for a challenging Gu season (March-April-May) as forecasts predict drier-than-usual conditions and higher-than-average temperatures across much of the country. The anticipated weather patterns pose a significant threat to food security, water availability, and livestock survival, according to findings presented during the sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) held in Mogadishu on March 4-5, 2025.
The forum, organized by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC) with technical support from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), gathered over 40 experts from various sectors, including agriculture, food security, health, and disaster risk management.
The seasonal outlook indicates that several regions are likely to experience below-average rainfall, particularly in Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and inland parts of Galguduud and Mudug. These areas face a more than 50% likelihood of experiencing drier-than-normal conditions. In addition, above-normal temperatures are expected across the country, with regions like Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland seeing temperatures that are more than 60% likely to exceed seasonal averages.
Rainfall onset will vary across the country:
- Early onset (April 10–17, 2025): Western and northern parts of Gedo region.
- Moderate onset (April 17–24, 2025): Lower Juba, Southwest, and Hirshabelle States.
- Late onset (April 24–30, 2025): Mudug and southern Nugaal regions.
- Latest onset: Bari region. The maximum wet spells are expected between April 20 and May 11, 2025, with coastal areas of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Puntland seeing the longest wet spells after rainfall onset.
The expected climate conditions will significantly impact Somalia's agriculture and water systems. Prolonged dry periods and high temperatures are likely to exacerbate the existing vulnerabilities in the country, potentially leading to food insecurity and reduced access to water. Livestock, a critical source of income for many rural families, may also suffer, further increasing the humanitarian burden.
"Addressing the challenges posed by these forecasted conditions requires urgent action from all sectors," said Mohamed Abdullahi, a representative from MoECC. "We must strengthen early warning systems, enhance drought response efforts, and promote climate-resilient agricultural practices to mitigate the impact of these climate shifts."
Participants attend a meeting at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change in Mogadishu, Somalia, during the sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) on March 4-5, 2025.
In response to these risks, the forum urged the government, humanitarian agencies, and local communities to prepare for the worst. Farmers and livestock herders have been advised to adopt water-saving techniques and drought-resistant crops, while health and disaster management authorities have been called to prepare for potential heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases. Humanitarian organizations are being urged to provide targeted assistance to the most affected regions.
The forum was funded by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Horn of Africa project, which provided the financial and technical support needed to organize the event and develop climate services. Participants are now focused on disseminating the seasonal advisories and collaborating with local stakeholders to bolster preparedness for the 2025 Gu season.