Tuesday March 4, 2025
A masked Shabaab militant poses with a rifle and the group's flag in front of a landmark in Biyo Cadde, central Somalia, after the militant group claimed to have captured the town. The photo, released by Shabaab-affiliated media, comes amid a series of coordinated assaults across the Middle Shabelle region.
Mogadishu (HOL) — Shabaab militants have launched their most aggressive offensive in months, storming multiple towns across central Somalia and exposing weaknesses in the government's counterinsurgency strategy. The al-Qaeda-affiliated group briefly seized key locations, including Balcad—just 30 kilometres from Mogadishu—before federal forces counterattacked.
The attacks, which began on February 20, targeted federal troops and clan militias in the Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions, stretching government resources thin. Shabaab claimed responsibility for at least nine assaults across multiple towns, asserting it had killed dozens of pro-government fighters and temporarily occupied strategic locations.
The offensive began with a coordinated assault on El Ali Ahmed, Ali Fooldheere, Alkowsar, and Daarunim'a—towns spanning southern Hiraan and northern Middle Shabelle. The Somali government initially stated that its forces and Ma'awisley clan militias repelled the attackers, killing more than 130 militants. The U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) also conducted airstrikes, targeting Shabaab positions.
However, Shabaab countered these claims with photographic evidence of its fighters inside Alkowsar and Daarunimca. While government forces reasserted control over some areas, the militant group's ability to penetrate defensive positions raised concerns about the effectiveness of security measures.
On February 21, heavy clashes erupted in El Baraf and Miirtaqwa in Middle Shabelle. Shabaab fighters were pictured in government buildings before being driven out by Somali troops. The U.S. military conducted additional airstrikes, though the status of El Baraf remains contested, with both sides claiming control at different times.
By February 25, Shabaab had escalated its offensive, striking Aboorey, Beero Yabal, Alkowsar, and El Ali Ahmed. While Somali forces successfully defended Beero Yabal, reports indicate that Shabaab overran a military base in Aboorey. In Bal'ad, the militants briefly forced government troops to withdraw, an alarming development given the town's proximity to Mogadishu.
Federal officials initially denied the incursion, but Shabaab later released images of its fighters patrolling the city. Government forces regrouped and counterattacked, reclaiming the town later that day.
On March 1, Shabaab launched yet another assault, targeting Biyo Adde. Somali officials claimed they repelled the attack, killing senior Shabaab operatives, but the group published photographic evidence suggesting it controlled sections of the town.
The recent wave of attacks highlights ongoing weaknesses in Somalia's counterinsurgency efforts. The government had regained large swaths of territory from Shabaab during its 2022-2023 military campaign, but momentum has stalled. Planned follow-up operations have been delayed, allowing Shabaab to regroup and launch fresh assaults.
The Somali government relies heavily on the Ma'awisley militia to hold territory in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, but inter-clan disputes have diverted resources away from the fight against Shabaab.
Further complicating the situation, Burundian troops, who had been securing parts of Middle Shabelle under the African Union's stabilization mission (AUSSOM), have begun withdrawing after disputes with Mogadishu over force levels. Ugandan forces are expected to replace them, but the transition has been slow, leaving security gaps that Shabaab has exploited.
Shabaab's ability to coordinate large-scale assaults across multiple locations suggests it remains a highly adaptive and capable force. The fact that it was able to briefly control Bal'ad, a key gateway to Mogadishu, signals an escalating threat to Somalia's capital.
U.S. airstrikes have been effective in disrupting Shabaab advances, but ground forces remain overstretched. Without reinforcements and a renewed offensive, the Somali government could lose more ground in the coming months.